A massive horse racing day on Boxing Day (Thursday, Dec 26th 2024), but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a three-day break, is the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

The King George VI Chase is the feature race of the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, landing the prize.

We take a look at each race on the Kempton card, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase from Wetherby, plus the Formby Novices' Hurdle from Aintree and highlight the main trends – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few festive winners.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Kempton Horse Racing Trends and Tips

12:45 Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 2m 4 1/2f ITV

20/20 – Aged 7 or younger
19/20 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
16/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/20 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/20 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
11/20 – Carried 11-5 or more
9/20 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
9/20 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/20 – Won by a French bred horse
6/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Raced at Kempton last time out
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 year-old
9 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or shorter

SUREWIN BEST BET: RANGE
SUREWIN DANGER: FIRE FLYER

1.20 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

20/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
20/21 – Placed in the top two last time out
16/21 – Won last time out
16/21 – French (9) or Irish (7) bred
15/21 – Had won at least 2 times over fences
15/21 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
14/21 – Aged 6 or younger
12/21 – Went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Chase, Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/21 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/21 – Placed favourites
11/21 – Aged 6 years-old
11/21 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
9/21 – Raced at Newbury last time out
8/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/21 – Trained by David Pipe
2/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/21 – French trained
1/21 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner - Coneygree 2015)
Bravemansgame (6/5) won the race in 2021
Just 1 favourite in the last 10 runnings (Shan Blue, 2020)

SUREWIN BEST BET: THE JUKEBOX MAN
SUREWIN DANGER: MASACCIO

1.55 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

20/22 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
19/22 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
19/22 – Placed favourites
17/22 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle - (Faughan (2015), Buveur D’Air (2018), Epatante (2019), Constitution Hill (2022) winners
14/22 – Won last time out
13/22 – Winning favourites
13/22 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
12/22 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
9/22 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
9/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (7 of the last 11), (12 in total)
8/22 – French bred
8/22 – Irish trained
4/22 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Constitution Hill won the race in 2022 and 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: LOSSIEMOUTH
SUREWIN DANGER: CONSTITUTION HILL

2.30 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

20/22 – French (14) or Irish bred (6)
18/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
18/22 – Had won a Grade One chase before
18/22 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
18/22 – Aged 8 or younger
17/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
17/22 – Placed favourites
16/22 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Officially rated 167 or higher
13/22 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
12/22 – Won last time out
11/22 – Winning favourites
11/22 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (13 times in all)
10/22– Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
8/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4/22 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 5 in the last 38 runnings)
Paul Nicholls, the Tizzard yard and Nicky Henderson have trained 16 of the last 18 winners between them (11 Nicholls, 2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2021 Tornado Flyer and 2001 Florida Pearl)
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 6/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: L'HOMME PRESSE
SUREWIN DANGER: BANBRIDGE

3.05 – Ladbrokes 'Gaffer Of All Accas' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m

Only 1 past running
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling is just 4 from 36 (11%) with his hurdles at the track
Jockey Harry Skelton has a 22% record riding over hurdles at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: KIENTZHEIM
SUREWIN DANGER: NAP HAND

3.40 – Ladbrokes Get Rewarded With Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f RTV

17/17 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
15/17 – Aged 6 or younger
15/17 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
12/17 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
11/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/17 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
10/17 – Officially rated 120-129
9/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – French bred
4/17 – Winning favourites (only 2 in the last 10)
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 4 winners)
9 of the last 10 winners aged between 4-6
Mahons Glory won the race in 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: DODDIETHEGREAT
SUREWIN DANGER: SAMUEL SPADE

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.35 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV

14/16 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
14/16 – Aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
14/16 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced at Wetherby before
10/16 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/16 – Unplaced in their last race
4/16 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
Fontaine Collonges (100/30) won the race in 2023
All of the last 10 winners aged 7 or 8

SUREWIN BEST BET: CRUZ CONTROL
SUREWIN DANGER: GOOD BOY BOBBY

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.05 – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Formerly The Tolworth Hurdle) (GBB Race) CI1 (3yo+) 2m ½ ITV

19/20 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
19/20 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
17/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
17/20 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17/20 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
16/20 – Came from the top three in the market
16/20 – Won last time out
13/20 – Placed favourites
11/20 – Won by an Irish bred horse
10/20– Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
10/20 – Winning Favourites
6/20 – Ran at either Sandown (4) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
5/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/20 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Constitution Hill, 2022, Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
2/20 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/20 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle (Gallagher) later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 25 of the last 32 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger

Note: Only ran at Aintree from 2023 (Sandown before)

SUREWIN BEST BET: COUNTRY MILE
SUREWIN DANGER: POTTERS CHARM