Here at SUREWIN we take you through the LIVE ITV races on the third and final day of the 2024 Newmarket July Meeting this Saturday (^12th July).

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2:12 – Newmarket Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f

16/16 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Didn’t win last time out
15/16 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
13/16 - Had won over at least 7f before
11/16 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
10/16 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
9/16 – Placed favourites
6/16 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/16 – Winning favourites
Asian Daze (9/1) won the race in 2024

Surewin Best Bet: To Follow
Surewin Danger: To Follow

2:50 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over 7f previously
21/23 – Raced 3 or more times that season
17/23 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/23 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
12/23 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/23 – Placed in their last race
10/23 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/23 – Horses from a double-figure stall that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd
4/23 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 14)
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 16)
10 of the last 14 winners came from double-figure draws
15 of the last 17 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 17 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Aalto (15/2) won the race in 2024
Biggles (5/1) won the race in 2023

Surewin Best Bet: To Follow
Surewin Danger: To Follow

3:25 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) (3yo) Cl2 1m ITV

21/23 – Had won over 7f or further previously
18/23 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
17/23 – Had 2 or more runs that season
13/23 – Unplaced in their last race
10/23 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
10/23 – Favourites unplaced
5/23 – Won their last race
5/23 – Winning Favourites
4/23 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 7)
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 12 runnings

Surewin Best Bet: To Follow
Surewin Danger: To Follow

4:00 - bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over at least 6f previously
21/23 – Placed in their last race
20/23 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
18/23 – Won their latest race
16/23 – Won by either a March or April foal
14/23 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
13/23 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/23 – Favourites unplaced
8/23 – Winning Favourites
5/25 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 15)
4/23 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/23 – Winners from stall 3
4/23 - Ridden by William Buick (4 of the last 7)
3/23 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 8)
2/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 12 runnings)
2/23 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 5 of the last 9 runnings
Ancient Truth (4/6 fav) won this race in 2024

Surewin Best Bet: To Follow
Surewin Danger: To Follow

4:35 – Al Basti July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2024 Mill Stream (11/1)
2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

22/23 – Aged 5 or younger
21/23 – Had won over 6f before
19/23 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
18/23 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
18/23 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
18/23 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
14/23 – Placed last time out
11/23 – Ran last time out in either the King Charles III Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – Won their previous race
6/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 7 winners)
3/23 – Filly winners
2/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 7)
2/23 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/23 – French-trained winners
15 of the last 16 winners aged 3 or 4
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 15/2
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer with Vincent O’Brien and Charles Morton

Surewin Best Bet: To Follow
Surewin Danger: To Follow