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Royal Ascot Trends and Free Tips: Sat 19th June 21

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

Into DAY FIVE at  ROYAL ASCOT we've SEVEN more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include theWokingham Stakes and Hardwicke Stakes, but all eyes will be on some of the best sprinters in the world as they line-up for theGroup One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 4.20.

Did you know? 15 of the last 18 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners were aged 5 or younger?

Like all big race days here at SUREWIN we've got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

 

 

2021 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

 

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Battleground (11/4 fav)
2019 – Pinatubo (3/1)
2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

 

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
16/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Ran over 6f last time out (10 won)
15/18 – Had just 1 previous career run
14/18 – Were foaled in March or earlier
13/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won their previous race
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/18 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien)
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017 and 2020
14 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
12 of the last 15 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

 

3.05 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2020 – Molatham (11/2)
2019 – Space Traveller (25/1)
2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 -  Just James (20/1)

 

Jersey Stakes Trends

17/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
15/19 – Had 4 or more career runs
12/19 – Had won over 7f before
11/19 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
9/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/19 – Horses from stall 8 placed
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Had run at Ascot before
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/19 – Won their previous race
3/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
The Irish have won 3 of the last 9 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 13 runnings

 

3.40 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Fanny Logan (17/2)
2019 – Defoe (11/4 fav)
2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/18 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
16/18 – Placed last time out
15/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/18 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
12/18 – Had run at Ascot before
12/18 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 10 winners)
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/18 – Won their previous race
7/18 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
12 of the last 15 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
10 of the last 15 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
7 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

 

4.20 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Hello Youmzain (4/1)
2019 – Blue Point (6/4 fav)
2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

17/18 – Previous distance (6f) winners
15/18 – Aged 5 or younger
15/18 – Previous Group Race winners
13/18 – Failed to win their last race
13/18 – Had run at Ascot before
11/18 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
4/18 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/18 – Trained by James Fanshawe
6 of the last 16 winners were Irish-bred
8 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
6 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price

 

5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV4

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Hey Jonesy (18/1)
2019 – Cape Byron (7/2 fav)
2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

 

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

21/21 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
20/21 – Had no more than 4 runs that season­­
19/21 – Finished sixth or better last time out
19/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Had won a race over 6f before
18/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/21 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
13/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/21 – Had run at Ascot before (7 had won here)
11/21 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
6/21 – Won their previous race
5/21 – Won by the favourite
11 of the last 15 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
9 of the last 15 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure draw
10 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
8 of the last 10 runnings - the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 9 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 8 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 32 winners returning a double-figure price

 

 

5.35 - Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

Just the one previous running
Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
Jockey Rossa Ryan won this race in 2020

 

6.10 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2020 – Who Dares Wins (Evs fav)
2019 – Cleonte (7/2)
2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

16/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/18 – Had run at Ascot before
10/18 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
6/18 – Won by a NH yard
5/18 – Irish-trained winners
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
11 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
12 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

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