Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Sandown and Aintree, with the Tingle Creek Chase and Becher Chase the feature contests - As always, here at SUREWIN we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races.

Let's get cracking!

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

22/22 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
19/22 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
19/22 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
18/22 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
18/22 – Placed favourites
17/22 – Officially rated 151 or higher
14/22 – Won their last race
12/22 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/22 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
7/22 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
7/22 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (7 of last 15)
6/22 – Won by an Irish bred horse
4/22 – Won by an Irish based yard
4/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/22 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 9)
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 11/2

SUREWIN BEST BET: CONSTITUTION HILL
SUREWIN DANGER: LOVE ENVOI

 

1.50 – Betfair Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

19/19 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
19/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
18/19 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
18/19 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
17/19 – Aged 6 or younger
16/19 – French (12) or Irish (4) bred
16/19 – Won last time out
13/19 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (3 winners)
12/19 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (6) last time out
12/19 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
12/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/19 – Winners went onto finish 1^st or 2^nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
6/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Alan King
Jonbon (2/11 fav) won the race in 2022

SUREWIN BEST BET: UNEXPECTED PARTY
SUREWIN DANGER: COLONEL HARRY

2.25 – Rachael Blackmore Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV4

18/19 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
17/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/19 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
15/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/19 – Rated between 116-128
12/19 – Unplaced favourites
11/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
12 of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter

SUREWIN BEST BET: SPRIRT D'AUNOU
SUREWIN DANGER: IMPOSE TOI

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

20/21 – Aged 9 or younger
19/21 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/21 – Had won a Grade One chase before
17/21 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
16/21 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
16/21 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
15/21 – Placed favourites
15/21 – French bred
15/21 – Officially rated 165 or higher
14/21 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
14/21 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
13/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/21 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
12/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
12/21 – Won last time out
11/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (12 wins in total)
6/21 - Won by a past winner
6/21 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre – Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
1/20 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 3/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: JONBON
SUREWIN DANGER: EDWARDSTONE

3.35 – Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4

16/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Aged 7 or older
16/17 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
15/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
14/17 – Rated 126 or higher
14/17 – Aged 8 or older
13/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/17 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
5/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Towcester (2) last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Tom George
1/17 – Winning favourites

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: FONTAINE COLLONGES
SUREWIN DANGER: BROKEN HALO

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 – Boylesports Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m4f ITV4

9/9 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/9 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
8/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
7/9 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/9 – Aged between 6-9 years-old
6/9 – Ran at Ayr (2), Kempton (2) or Bangor (2) last time out
6/9 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
6/9 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
6/9 – Unplaced favourites
5/9 – Rated between 133 and 135 (inc)
5/9 – Had run at Aintree before
5/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: WAR LORD
SUREWIN DANGER: BRAVE SEASCA

 

2.05 – Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4

19/21 – Aged 8+
17/21 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
17/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/21 – Had no more than 1 start that season
16/21 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
16/21 – Carried 10-12 or less
14/21 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
15/21 – Aged 9 or older
13/21 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/21 – Irish-bred winners
11/21 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
11/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/21 – Placed favourites
8/21 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/21 – Irish-trained winners
3/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/21 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/21 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 11.5/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Ashdown Lad (5/1) won the race in 2022

SUREWIN BEST BET: PERCUSSION
SUREWIN DANGER: ASHTOWN LAD

2.40 – Boylesports Daily Money Back 2^nd Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m1f ITV4

9/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Won over 2m+ before
8/9 – Favourites finished in top 3
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Won last time out
7/9 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
5/9 – French bred
5/9 – Winning favourite
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Nicky Henderson
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 9 running is 7/4

Note: This race has been staged at Doncaster in the past

SUREWIN BEST BET: LIARI
SUREWIN DANGER: EAGLE PRINCE

3.15 – Boylesports Extra Place Daily Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/12 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/12 - Aged 7 or younger
9/12 - Won between 1-2 times before
9/12 - Aged between 5-6 years-old
8/12 - Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/12 - Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 - Won over at least 2m4f before
6/12 - Had run at Aintree before
4/12 - Ran at Aintree (2) or Kempton (2) last time out
4/12 - Winning favourites
4/12 - Won last time out
2/12 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 - Trained by Dan Skelton
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: SONIGINO
SUREWIN DANGER: HOLMES ST GEORGE