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Saturday Racing TV Tips and Trends: 20th January 2024

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

The LIVE ITV Racing action this weekend - weather permitting - will come from Haydock and Ascot.

So, like all big race days, here at SUREWIN we've got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle – just these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV)

1.50 – BetMGM Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

13/13 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
12/13 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
12/13 – From the top 4 in the betting
12/13 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
9/13 – Later ran in that season’s Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
9/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
9/13 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
9/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (4) in their last race
8/13 – Winning Favourites
7/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Raced at Ascot previously
4/13 – French bred
3/13 – Aged 6 years-old
2/13 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/13 – Trained by Dan Skelton
2/13 – Ridden by Harry Skelton
2/13 - Later finished second in the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/13 – Won the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 8 runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has won the last two runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has won the last 2 runnings
Molly Ollys Wishes (13/8 fav) won the race in 2022

2:25 – bet365 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

15/16 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
14/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
13/16 – Either French (5) or Irish (8) bred
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
13/16 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
12/16 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
11/16 – Aged 8 or younger
10/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/16 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/16 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Winning distance  - 6 lengths or further
5/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 7 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of last 5)
2/16 – Winning Favourites
Phoenix Way (7/1) won the race in 2022
Fanion D’Estruval was second in the race in 2022

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

3:00 – BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

13/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/15 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/15 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
11/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/15 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
8/15 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 2nd and 3rd )
7/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – French bred
6/15 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/15 – Aged 6 years-old
6/15 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/15 – Trained by David Pipe
3/15 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/15 – Later raced in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/15 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/15 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of the last 5)
3/15 – Favourites (1 co)

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

3.37 – BetMGM Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
20/20 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
19/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
18/20 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
17/20 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
17/20 – Favourites placed
17/20 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/20 – Won their last race
14/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
13/20 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
12/20 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
12/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/20 – Favourites that won
11/20 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/20 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/20 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, 2013 -Sprinter Sacre, 2014 - Sire de Grugy, 2015 - Dodging Bullets)
4/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 6 times in all)
4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 7)
2/20– Won by the Pipe stable
2/20– Won by the Gary Moore stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (31 runnings) there have been 13 winners aged 8 years-old

The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 7/2

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2:05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

15/15 – Aged 7 or younger
14/15 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Won their last race
8/15 – Aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Winning Favourites
6/15 – Had raced at Haydock previously
5/15 – French bred
4/15 -  Ran at Haydock last time out
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15– Trained by Venetia Williams
2/15 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
Jonbon (2/5 fav) won the race in 2022
Faivoir (7/1) won the race in 2021

Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

2:40 – Sky Bet Cheltenham Non-Runner No Bet Handicap Hurdle (Cl3) (4yo+ 0-140) 3m 1/2f ITV

8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Won between 2-4 times (hurdles) before
8/9 – Won over 3m (hurdles) in the past
7/9 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Irish bred winners
6/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Rated between 124-129
6/9 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
6/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
5/9 – Had run at Haydock before
5/9 – Top 5 finish last time out
5/9 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/9 – Winning favourites

3:15 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

19/19 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Aged 8 or older
16/19 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
16/19 – Had run within the last 36 days
14/19 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
14/19 – Won at Haydock previously
13/19 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/19 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
12/19 – Favourites unplaced
12/19 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
11/19 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
11/19 – Won over fences at Haydock before
10/19 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
10/19 – Irish bred
10/19 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/19 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
7/19 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/19 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
8/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/19 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/19 – Trained by Sue Smith (3 of the last 7)
4/19 – Ridden by Danny Cook
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Won their last race
3/19 - Trained by Venetia Williams (4 wins in total and won the last two)
2/19 – Trained by the McCain stable
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 9/1

 

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