We've another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks - Kempton, Southwell and Newcastle.

The Coral Trophy Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that's run over 4m1f. Then at Southwell the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby - being run at the track for the first time.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

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Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50 – Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

17/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 -  Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
14/18 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/18 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – French bred
5/18 – Irish bred
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/18 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 5 runnings)
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

SUREWIN BEST BET: KALID DU BERLAIS
SUREWIN DANGER: PEKING OPERA

2.27 – Coral Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

16/18 – French or Irish bred
14/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
13/18 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
12/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 8 of the last 13)
11/18 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites
Harry Cobden has ridden the last three winners
Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners
4 of the last 6 winners owned by Johnny de la Hey

SUREWIN BEST BET: ARCLIGHT
SUREWIN DANGER: TAHMURAS

3.00 – Coral Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
14/17 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
14/17 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
11/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Alan King
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

SUREWIN BEST BET: PANJARI
SUREWIN DANGER: LUMP SUM

3.37 – Coral Trophy Chase Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

18/21 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
18/21 – Aged 9 or younger
17/21 – Rated 139 or higher
15/21 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
13/21 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/21 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/21 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
12/21 – Rated between 139 and 150
11/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/21 – Carried 11-5 or more
9/21 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Aged 8 years-old
6/21 – French bred
5/21 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/21 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/21 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/21 – Trained by Tom George
3/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/21 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 7)
2/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (won 2 of the last 7)
2/21 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard (won it 4 times in all)
2/21 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

SUREWIN BEST BET: BLACKJACK MAGIC
SUREWIN DANGER: KILLER KANE

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.08 – Betting.bet Eider Handicap Chase Cl2 4m1f ITV4

19/19 – Had won over at least 3m before
17/19 – Aged 10 or younger
16/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
16/19 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
13/19 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/19 – Officially rated between 131-140
12/19 – Irish-bred
12/19 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
11/19 – Placed favourites
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/19 – Carried 11-12 in weight
4/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 9/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: ANGLERS CRAG
SUREWIN DANGER: MAJOR DUNDEE

Southwell Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.45 – BetUK Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

12/16 – Rated 96+
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
10/16 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
10/16 – Placed favs
8/16 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Mare winners
4/16 – US bred
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
Kinngrace won the race in 2023
One Night Stand won the race in 2022
Note: Previous runnings were staged at Lingfield

SUREWIN BEST BET: CLARENDON HOUSE
SUREWIN DANGER:DILIGENT HARRY

3.20 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

17/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
17/21 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
17/21 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
17/21 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
16/21 – Had run at Lingfield previously
15/21 – Had raced at either Lingfield (11) or Kempton (4) last time out
15/21 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the market
13/21 – Winning distance – less than a length
13/21 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/21 – Placed in their last race
12/21 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/21 – Won their last race
10/21– Won at least 6 times previously
9/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 5 runnings)
2/21 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 11)
2/21 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 9)
Just 2 of the last 17 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 20 renewals is 5/1
Lord North won the race in 2023

Note: Previous runnings were staged at Lingfield

SUREWIN BEST BET: LORD NORTH
SUREWIN DANGER: TYRRHENIAN SEA