As we head into the last day of the 2025 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 5th April 2025 we’ve more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and The Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent events, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

As always here at SUREWIN we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Good Luck!

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SATURDAY, 5th April 2025 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.20pm – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV

10/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/11 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/11 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
10/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
8/11 – Carried 10-12 in weight
9/11 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
8/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Rated between 131-138
8/11 – Placed favs (top 4)
7/11 – Had never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
5/11 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Finished in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/11 – Trained and ridden by Dan Skelton
2/11 – Ridden by Dan Skelton
2/11 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)

2024 Winner: Gweenie May Boy (9/2)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Charlie Todd

SUREWIN BEST BET: KAMSINAS
SUREWIN DANGER: ACT OF AUTHORITY

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

20/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
18/21 – Raced 39 days or less ago
18/21 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17/21 – Placed in the top three last time out
16/21 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (11 of last 14)
12/21 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
10/21 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (9 of the last 13 favs have won)
9/21 – Won their last race
4/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 7)
2/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 2 of last 13 runnings)
Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
21 of the last 27 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
14 of the last 15 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
12 of the last 18 (67%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
16 of the last 25 (57%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
17 of the last 27 (63%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 20 (50%) runnings between them
9 of the last 14 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 28 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 35 years
Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
Front runners in the race have a bad recent record

2024 Winner: Brighterdaysahead (6/5 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Jack Kennedy

SUREWIN BEST BET: FINGLE BAY
SUREWIN DANGER: KAPPA JY PYKE

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

18/21 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/21 – Didn’t win last time out
15/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
15/21 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
12/21 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/21 – Unplaced in their last race
13/21 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
5/21 – Won their last race
4/21 – Favourites that won
3/21 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 14)
2/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/21 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 of the last 25 winners were aged 10+
Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 20 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 47 runnings
10 of the last 14 (71%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 17 winners didn’t win earlier that season
9 of the last 12 winners had won over 3m before
Only 3 of the last 18 winners won last time out

2024 Winner: Cruz Control (9/1)
Trainer: Tom Lacey
Jockey: Stan Sheppard

SUREWIN BEST BET: HAPPYGOLUCKY
SUREWIN DANGER: SAME BROWN

3.05pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

15/20 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
16/20 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
16/20 – Ran within the last 30 days
14/20 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
14/20 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
13/20 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/20 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9/20 – Won their last race
9/20 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
7/20 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/20 – Irish-trained winners
2/20 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 3)
2/20 – Trained by Alan King
2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
16 of the last 20 (80%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18 of the last 20 (90%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
16 of the last 20 (80%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 20 (70%) were favourite or second favourite
8 of the last 15 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7 of the last 15 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 9 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 6-from-6
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-8
Just 3 of the last 20 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
Just 3 winners rated below 155 in the last 20 runnings
No 5 year-old winners

2024 Winner: Strong Leader (8/1)
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Jockey: Sean Bowen

SUREWIN BEST BET: STRONG LEADER
SUREWIN DANGER: TEAHUPOO

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

• 32/33 – Officially rated 137 or higher
• 31/33 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
• 29/33 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
• 29/33 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
• 25/33 – Returned a double-figure price
• 25/33 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
• 25/33 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
• 25/33 – Aged 9 or older
• 23/33 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
• 22/33 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
• 21/33 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
• 21/33 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (7 of the last 8)
• 19/33 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
• 19/33 – Placed favourites
• 18/33 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
• 16/33 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
• 13/33 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
• 13/33 – Trained in Ireland (inc 10 of the last 18 years)
• 9/33 – Won last time out
• 8/33 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
• 7/33 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 14 of the last 16 were having their debuts)
• 3/33 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
• 2/33 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
• 2/33 - Trained by Willie Mullins
• 2/33 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
• 1/33 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

• Since 1978, 146 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 19 of the last 25 winners were bred in Ireland
• 5 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue tie
• 22 of the last 30 winners aged between 8-10
• Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
• 14 of the last 16 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
• Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
• 15 of the last 27 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
• No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
• 3 of the last 15 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
• 10 of the last 21 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
• 5 of the last 22 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
• Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 38 years (86 have attempted)
• 25 of the last 27 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
• Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (21 Year)

21/21 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
19/21 – Officially rated 137 or higher
18/21 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
18/21 – Had won over at least 3m previously
18/21 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/21 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/21 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
13/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/21 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/21 – Experienced the National fences before
8/21 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/21 – Won their last race
6/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/21 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (5 of the last 9)
5/21– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/21 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/21 – Won by the McCain yard
2/21 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard
2/21 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard

2024 Winner: I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend

SUREWIN BEST BET: STUMPTOWN
SUREWIN DANGER: MINELLA COCOONER

5.00 – Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m 

21/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
21/21 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
21/21 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
18/21 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
18/21 – Ran within the last 35 days
16/21 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/21 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
11/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/21 – Favourites that won
9/21 – Won their last race
6/21 – Irish-trained winners
5/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 4 of last 13 runnings)
3/21 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 11 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 24 years and 4-from-5 since 2008 (when running)
Since 1989 there have been just 6 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2022 & 2024
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
9 of the last 14 winners were French bred
11 of the last 15 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 24 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 26 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973

2024 Winner: Found A Fifty (11/8 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Jack Kennedy

SUREWIN BEST BET: L'EAU DU SUD
SUREWIN DANGER: KALIF DU BERLAIS