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Sat TV Tips and Stats: 5th July 25

Thursday, June 26, 2025

The ITV cameras head to Sandown and Haydock on Saturday 6th July with the Coral-Eclipse, plus the Lancashire Oaks and Old Newton Cup the clear highlights – as always, here at SUREWIN we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 - Coral Charge (Registered as The Sprint Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 5f6y ITV

22/23 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
21/23 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/23 – Favourites placed
18/23 – Had won at least 3 times before
16/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/23 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/23 – Winning favourites
8/23 – Won last time out
7/23 – Had won at Sandown before
6/23 – Ran at Ascot last time out
10 of the last 19 winners were Irish bred
14 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
Makarova (9/2) won the race in 2024
Equality (7/1) won the race in 2023
Raasel (5/2) won the race in 2022

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow 
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow 

2.25 – Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV

22/23 – Aged 6 or younger
21/23 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
20/23 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
19/23 – Didn’t win their previous race
17/23 – Placed favourites
13/23 – Had run at Sandown before
13/23 – Aged 4 years-old
12/23 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (10) last time out
8/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/23 – Winning favourites
2/23 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/23 - Trained by William Haggas (won 2 of the last 6 runnings)
15 of the last 19 winners came from stall 8 or lower
Cicero’s Gift (11/2) won the race in 2024
Perotto (5/1 jfav) won the race in 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow 
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow 

3.00 – Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m14y ITV

20/21 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
19/21 – Had never run at Sandown before
18/21 – Had won over 7f or further before
16/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/21 – Favourites that finished in the top three
12/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/21 - Trained by William Haggas (3 of last 6)
2/21 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 9)
16 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 3-9 (inc)
10 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 3,4,5 or 6
Spiritual (25/1) won the race in 2024

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow 
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow 

3.35 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV

23/23 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
19/23 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
19/23 – Won by a previous Group One winner
18/23 – Placed favourites
18/23 – Placed in their last race
16/23 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
12/23 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (four won there)
11/23 – Favourites that won
7/23 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of the last 4)
6/23 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 13)
10 of the last 18 winners won last time out
3 of the last 16 Epsom Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
16 of out the last 20 winners had run in the previous 30 days
16 out of the last 20 winners were Group 1 winners
19 of the last 20 winners came from the first four in the betting
17 out of the last 20 winners had won over 1m 2f or further
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 7/2
Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2024, 2023, 2021, 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1993 & 2017
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995, 2016 & 2020
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 13 runnings (2012, 2015, 2018 & 2019)

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow 
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 - bet365 Handicap Cl2 1m6f95y ITV

7 previous runnings
8/8 - Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 - Drawn between stalls 4-9 (inc)
7/8 – Won between 1-2 times
7/8 – Yet to win over 1m6f
6/8 - Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Rated between 80-87
5/8 – Didn’t win last race
5/8 - Carried 8-13 or more in weight
5/8 – Finished 1st or 2nd in last race
4/8 – Placed favourites
3/8 – Had run at Haydock before (2 winners)
3/8 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/8 - Winning favourites
3/8 – Won by a claiming jockey
William Haggas trained the winner in 2020, 2022 and 2024
The Johnston yard trained the winner in 2018, 2019 & 2024
John Gosden trained the winner in 2017
Align The Stars (7/1) won the race in 2024

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow 
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow 

2.40 – bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y ITV

20/23 – Had won at least at Listed class before
20/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
20/23 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
18/23 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/23 – Placed favourites
16/23 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/23 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/23 – Won last time out
13/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/23 – Trained by John Gosden
7/23 – Winning favourites
8/23 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/23 – Raced at Ascot last time out
The last 12 runnings have been won by a 4 year-old
Queen of the Pride (100/30) won the race last year
Note: The 2007 renewal was staged at Newmarket

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow 
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow 

3.15 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y ITV

Old Newton Cup Betting Trends
20/22 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
16/22 – Aged 5 or younger
16/22 – Won no more than 5 times before
16/22 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
15/22 – Had won at least 3 times before
14/22 – Carried 9-1 or less
14/22 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
13/22 – Favourites placed in the top 4
12/22 – Aged 4 years-old
11/22 – Irish or USA bred
11/22 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/22 – Raced within the last 7 days
8/22 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
8/22 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
7/22 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/22 – Had won a race at Haydock before
6/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/22 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/22 – Trained by Marco Botti
2/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 10/1
Note: There was NO race in 2024 (abandoned)

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow 
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow 

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